Most Premier League seasons feature a team or two making a fantastic start before eventually falling back into mid-table; Nottingham Forest have had no such fall. After just one defeat in their first ten games, Nuno Espirito Santo's side maintained their momentum with a stunning win at Old Trafford last weekend.
As the momentum continues for Forest, and more familiar occupants of the European spots continue to falter, the prospect of the Reds qualifying for Europe is becoming far more realistic.
So are Nottingham Forest, in just their third season back in the Premier League, on course to end their near-thirty-year wait for European football?
Season So Far
The first three weeks of the season were nothing special for Forest. A very average performance on the Opening Day at the City Ground was just about enough to earn a 1 - 1 draw with Bournemouth, before a Morgan Gibbs-White goal gave the Reds their first win of the season at St. Mary's against newly-promoted Southampton in Gameweek 2.
Forest's Carabao Cup run was over as soon as it began, as Newcastle United won in Nottingham on penalties after a 1 - 1 draw.
Another 1 - 1 draw at home followed for Forest, this time with strugglers Wolves. This was actually seen as a disappointing result among Reds fans, especially as they'd dominated most of the game, in which both goals were scored in the opening 12 minutes.
Heading into the first international break of the season then, Forest found themselves with five points but wanting more. Admittedly this was more down to their favourable fixtures than their good performances, but that mentality of chasing more has proven to be crucial to their fantastic form.
The Reds came back from the September international break with a point to prove and they did it in a monumental way.
First up after the break was a trip to Anfield to face a Liverpool side who had a 100% record and hadn't conceded a goal.
Enter Callum Hudson-Odoi, whose stunning strike in the final 20 minutes stunned the hosts into silence and took Nottingham Forest second in the Premier League.
It was that desire for more than spurred Forest on to look for a winner, not content with what would've been a very credible point at Anfield.
This was a statement win for Nuno's side, showcasing a new-found ability for Forest to go away from home and deliver a strong defensive performance, keeping a clean sheet at what is probably the toughest English ground to keep a clean sheet at.
Since the Reds' promotion to the Premier League, they've struggled enormously on the road, especially at the back, but their resilience at Anfield felt like the realisation of a new period for what is a historic football club.
The momentum carried over into the following week as Forest made the trip down to the South Coast to face Brighton and despite both Morgan Gibbs-White and Nuno Espirito Santo being sent off, the Reds came away with a point after a 2 - 2 draw.
While a draw away at Brighton may not have seemed like the most impressive result at the time, the Seagulls' wins against Manchester City and Tottenham have underlined what has been an altogether successful first season for Fabian Hurzeler so far.
There have been ups and downs for Forest since their trip to Brighton, losing to Fulham, City and Arsenal but beating West Ham, Ipswich and Manchester United.
In short, Nottingham Forest are doing enough, albeit just about, to remain on track for a European spot, especially if those below them who usually occupy these spots continue to struggle to the extent that they currently are.
Problems for Others Opening the Door for Forest
The traditional big six all occupied spots in the top eight last season and secured European football, although Manchester United did so through winning the FA Cup rather than their league position.
Chelsea finished strong, but a poor first half of their 2023/2024 season meant they could only recover to sixth and Tottenham's inconsistency cost them a place in the top four.
Aston Villa were the surprise package of last season, securing Champions League football through a fourth-place finish, two points ahead of fifth-placed Spurs.
This season, several of last season's top eight are struggling. While Chelsea have improved and put themselves up among last season's top three, Manchester United and Tottenham have faltered.
United's form was sketchy at best last season, but winning the FA Cup saved manager Erik Ten Hag's job.
There are no trophies available in October however and that proved costly for the Dutchman, as he was sacked following a frankly pathetic 2 - 1 defeat to West Ham United.
Highly-rated Sporting CP manager Ruben Amorim has replaced Ten Hag at Old Trafford, but after a promising start, the Portuguese is finding out just how big his task is.
United had no creativity to offer any threat to Arsenal in their 2 - 0 defeat at the Emirates last week and a cacophony of errors saw them lose 3 - 2 to a clinical Nottingham Forest side this weekend.
It was blatantly clear from Saturday's game that Nottingham Forest are significantly ahead of Manchester United at the moment.
Forest struggled at the beginning of the game, and yet led through Nikola Milenkovic after just two minutes. This simply came down to Nuno and his coaching staff exploiting a real weakness of Manchester United's; corners.
United were unable to pin-point weaknesses in Forest's set-up, which in part is down to Amorim's desire to instil his own style of football, but also reflects the difference in confidence levels between the two sides. That difference is also reflected by the fact that Nottingham Forest sit fifth in the Premier League while United are thirteenth.
Tottenham are far more difficult to analyse. In the past two months, the North London side have beaten Manchester City twice and thrashed Aston Villa, but these represent their only victories in their last nine games.
Defeats to Bournemouth and Ipswich along with a draw in a Europa League game they led twice against Roma had hugely increased the pressure on manager Ange Postecoglou.
Then Spurs blew a 2 - 0 lead to lose 4 - 3 to Chelsea on Sunday; this is the second time Tottenham have lost from 2 - 0 up in the Premier League this season.
Postecoglou's disappointed body language after the Chelsea game paired with his apparent desire to have a fist fight with a disapproving fan against Bournemouth shows that he's obviously feeling the effects of Tottenham's disappointing form.
Spurs are in the bottom half of the Premier League, with just 20 points from 15 matches. For a side who were just two points off the Champions League places last season, this is a horrendous step backwards.
Much like Manchester United's new manager, Postecoglou is keen to stick with his system despite questionable success rates.
Chelsea scored four at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last season, but went 2 - 0 down inside 12 minutes this weekend against their London rivals. Yet there was no panic.
There was almost a team-wide acceptance that 2 - 0 wasn't a problem, Chelsea knew they'd be able to score because they knew how Tottenham would play; exactly the same way they did last season.
Arsenal did the same in their North London Derby win back in September. The Gunners arrived without Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard, but like Chelsea were entirely aware of their opponent's tactics.
Having scored from a set piece, Arsenal sat deep and Spurs passed the ball around. Half an hour later, the Gunners had a derby win without breaking a sweat.
This is not to take away from Forest though; at their current rate of gaining points, the Reds would finish with 63, which last season was enough for Chelsea to finish sixth.
Europe On The Cards?
The big question appears to be whether or not the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham can get their season's back on track in time to catch high-flying Nottingham Forest.
But actually, with Fulham and Brighton also starting faster than expected, there are plenty of form clubs to keep Forest honest even if the usual suspects don't recover to a more acceptable position.
Forest's only slight weakness to have been exposed so far is their apparent dependence on a couple of key players.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been vital to the Forest set-up this season. For those who haven't paid attention to the number ten, he's essentially played as a six, an eight and a ten in every game he's featured in.
Nuno Espirito Santo has been somewhat reliant on his talismanic midfielder, with Forest losing two of the four games the England man has missed; they've lost just two of the eleven where he's been available.
Chris Wood's stats show a similar reliance for his club; the New Zealander has failed to score in just six matches this Premier League season; all four of Forest's defeats have come in these games.
So injuries may well be a problem down the line for the Reds.
As much as it's unlikely that two usually reliable players would suffer injuries at the same time, the impact would likely derail Forest's season if even one of these two key men were to be injured let alone both.
But if they keep their star players fit and continue to play the direct, effective brand of football that Nuno has installed at the City Ground, there is absolutely no reason why Nottingham Forest can't secure European football for the first time since 1996.
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