Championship Promotion Race Taking Shape with Four Games to Go

For all the Premier League's glamour and stature, there can be no doubt that the EFL is far more unpredictable. The top three in the Championship epitomise this perfectly; the three Northern clubs have eight wins from their past fifteen combined games, and four of those belong to Burnley.

Leeds United had struggled in recent weeks, but have now won back-to-back games after narrowly beating Preston North End this weekend. This has been timely for the Whites, because their return to form has coincided with Sheffield United falling out of it.

The Blades were beaten 2 - 1 by bottom club Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, despite being ahead in the 80th minute. Chris Wilder's tantrum after the game did nothing to help an already panicked situation at Bramall Lane.

Had fourth-placed Sunderland overcome mid-table Swansea, Wilder's team would be looking below them to fourth, but the Swans provided further proof of the chaos that is the Championship by scoring a second-half winner at the Stadium of Light.

Below the top four, Bristol City's excellent form in the second half of the season has fired them into the playoff places, while Frank Lampard's Coventry City can overtake the Robins with victory tonight away to Hull City.

If the Sky Blues were to beat the Tigers, there would be a four point gap between West Bromwich Albion and Bristol City either side of the crucial playoff line.

So with both races starting to take shape, is it set in stone, or will the run-in change it all?

Top Three

Swansea's smash-and-grab win at the Stadium of Light leaves Sunderland 12 points off the automatic promotion places with just four matches to play, realistically counting the Black Cats out of the automatic race.

That leaves Leeds United, Burnley and Sheffield United, familiar names to even the most casual of Premier League fans.

Burnley have swapped between the top two flights in each of the past three seasons (promotion next month would make it four), while Sheffield United have done the swap in each of the past four seasons.

These affectionately-nicknamed "yo-yo" teams are in very different situations with four games to go though.

Burnley are almost certain to go up simply because they have an outrageous defensive record. The Clarets have conceded an astonishing 13 goals in 42 league games, less than one goal every three games.

The records Scott Parker's side stand to break are quite remarkable; they have a chance to achieve the best defensive season in English football if they beat Chelsea's 15 conceded, but the Blues did that in the Premier League, with eight less matches.

It's almost certain Burnley will beat the previous best in the Championship of 30.

Leeds have a similar superiority in their attacking game. While they're unlikely to touch Manchester City's EFL record of 108 goals in a season, their 82 league goals scored is at least 19 better than any other side (curiously 13th-place Norwich are second with 63).

Daniel Farke, who incidently also used to manage the Canaries, has prioritised attacking football, preferring to attack level games rather than protect a point.

As a result, the Whites have scored 22 times in the 76th minute or later, and have scored 10 more goals in the second half of Championship matches than they have in the first.

These traits give both Leeds and Burnley an undeniable identity and, more often than not, a solid advantage. Leeds have a bit of a reputation for throwing away promotion campaigns, but they did achieve promotion as Champions in 2020.

Although it isn't the most analytical conclusion, it just feels like the current top two are a little more convincing than Sheffield United. Going back to the Leeds stat about late goals, the Blades have scored just six late goals, conceding 11; they've also scored fewer and conceded more goals in the second half than they have in the first.

Burnley and Leeds have both looked like Premier League sides at times in the Championship this season, and while Sheffield United have been a very good Championship side, they haven't quite had the same edge as their promotion rivals.

The Blades have won the most games in the league this season, with 26 compared to Leeds' 25 and Burnley's 24, but Chris Wilder's side have lost nine; the top two have just six defeats between them.

All that being said, the gap is at five points, and there are more than double that many points left to play for, but there might not be in a week's time.

As long as Burnley and Leeds get at least a point from their next matches, which come away to Watford and Oxford United respectively, the Blades would be in danger of being out of the race on Matchday 44.

This is because Sheffield United visit Turf Moor on Matchday 44, where a Burnley victory, so long as the Clarets don't lose to Watford on Good Friday, will see Scott Parker's side promoted to the Premier League.

Leeds United will go up with them if they can amass four points from their next two games; they will need just two points if Sheffield United lose to Cardiff on Friday.

Sheffield United mathematically cannot be promoted until the final day, but even that hope is slim as they'll head to Burnley out of form.

Playoff Battle

Championship playoff races are famed throughout the English football pyramid as being some of the tightest, most unpredictable battles anywhere in the game and this season is no different.

There may be a four point gap between the top six and the rest of the pack by the time Coventry make their way home from Hull tonight, but given the sheer number of teams still in the hunt, it's a thrilling battle.

West Bromwich Albion, Middlesbrough and, somewhat surprisingly, Millwall, all sit on 60 points after 42 games, leaving them right in the thick of the playoff race.

Surprisingly, the only meeting left between the five sides fighting it out for the last two spots in the top six is Middlesbrough's final day trip to Coventry. There are meetings with the top four to negotiate, but these games aren't necessarily too bad to have at the end of the season, when clubs might already be promoted or resigned to the playoffs.

Picking two from the five to secure the remaining playoff spots is virtually impossible.

Bristol City are in the best form, losing just one of their last eleven games, but Coventry City have the most wins outside of the top four. Inversely, West Brom have just ten defeats, only one fewer than Sheffield United.

But previous playoff battles have often shown that stats give very little information; it all comes down to mentality. Winning these games is simply more important than winning any other league game.

Of course getting into the playoffs is just part of the challenge; winning them requires Premier League quality, both in terms of the football and mentality.

Whichever team finishes third would be favourites given how they've pulled away from Sunderland and the rest of the pack, but the Black Cats have proven to be a very dangerous big-game team, taking points from at least one meeting with each of the top three this season.

But the most beautiful thing about the playoffs is just how unpredictable they are; Leeds were heavy favourites last season, but were beaten in the final by Southampton.

The Championship is wonderfully difficult to predict, but Burnley and Leeds have been a class above the rest this season and look set to return to the promised land of the Premier League.

Predicting the playoff sides though is incredibly difficult; Sunderland are guaranteed to join whichever of the top three misses out on automatic promotion, likely Sheffield United, but five teams will battle for the remaining two spots.

Either way, for those successful in reaching the Premier League, the biggest challenge will be surviving in the top flight.