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Fourth Round of the FA Cup Throws Up Several Potential Upsets

Writer's picture: Connor BoothConnor Booth

The FA Cup continues this weekend with the Fourth Round, with 32 sides bidding for a place in the last 16 of the competition. Four ties feature Premier League teams facing each other, while several clubs from the lower echelons of the EFL will aim for spectacular upsets against top flight sides.


While this round may lack the headline ties the Third Round had with Tottenham's trip to Tamworth and Manchester United's clash with Arsenal, the Fourth Round draw is much more of an FA Cup-style draw.



It's a perfect blend of games you'd see every week in the Premier League and games you see roughly once a decade in places like Exeter and Plymouth.


A quirk of this Fourth Round draw is that Burnley are the only EFL club to travel to a Premier League club as they make the trip to bottom-club Southampton.


In the other eight ties featuring one EFL club and one Premier League side, the lower-league side are at home. While this might not bring quite as big of a pay day if the EFL club were to lose, it certainly maximises their chance of making it through to the Fifth Round.



While the focus is (quite rightly) still on the lower-league sides at this stage of the competition, there are four all-Premier League ties to look forward to as well, with three ties played between two EFL clubs.



All-Premier League ties headline Fourth Round draw


Four ties in the Fourth Round see two Premier League sides face off, with three of them featuring at least one side fighting to secure European football through the Premier League.


The one exception is the opening tie of the round, which sees Manchester United host Leicester City. The Red Devils aren't quite in the relegation scrap after wins over Southampton and Fulham in January, but in 13th place they're not exactly in a top six battle either.


After United's penalty shootout win over Arsenal in the Third Round, it looked as though Ruben Amorim was finally getting what he wanted from his players. But after a nervy win over Southampton, Brighton came to Old Trafford and reset the clock.



The same happened following wins over Rangers and Fulham, this time Crystal Palace disrupting the momentum by leaving Manchester with three points.


Even though Leicester are in awful form under former Red Devil's striker Ruud van Nistelrooy, the reality is that anyone would fancy their chances at Old Trafford at the moment.


Equally as appealing will be a tie against Tottenham, which Aston Villa earned by beating West Ham in the Third Round. Spurs head to Villa Park with a serial injury list, but still the debate rages on as to whether Ange Postecoglou needs to change his tactics.


With or without the injuries, the Australian insists on keeping to exactly the same style.



It's something common with academy teams trying to prepare players for the first team, but while that's encouraged with U21s and U18s, it's somewhat more frustrating for supporters when it drops the first team to 14th in the Premier League.


The last thing Tottenham's high line will want to see is the pace of Villa's heavily bolstered attack running at them. As well as Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey and Morgan Rogers, the Villains added the loan signings of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio to their ranks, giving them arguably the best attacking depth in the top flight.



Elsewhere in the Fourth Round, Chelsea welcome Brighton for what has become something of a grudge match in recent seasons. A number of transfer deals, feisty encounters and the whole Graham Potter scenario has made this a rivalry with some bite to it.


Chelsea have flipped the script in this fixture over the past couple of seasons, winning the past four having won none of the previous five. In the FA Cup though, it's anyone's guess, as the sides haven't met in the world's oldest cup competition since 1973.


Everton's tie with Bournemouth is equally difficult to call given the Toffees' new-found form under returning manager David Moyes. It's somewhat fitting that Everton's greatest manager of the Premier League era will oversee their final season at Goodison Park.



It would be a remarkable send-off for the stadium if Everton could progress deep into the FA Cup, but Bournemouth are in imperious form, only losing a 12-game unbeaten streak with last weekend's defeat to Premier League leaders Liverpool.


If both sides go for it, which the strength of their Third Round line-ups suggest they will, this could quietly be the tie of the round.



Top flight visitors for wealth of EFL sides


Half of the ties in this round feature EFL clubs hosting Premier League opponents. With replays being scrapped for the Third and Fourth Rounds this season, these ties will be settled in the EFL grounds.


Four of the Premier League's top six travel to face EFL sides. The first of these ties will see a stuttering Manchester City go to League One promotion-chasers Leyton Orient, and straight away this has all the ingredients for an upset.


City are in a very difficult place at the moment; Pep Guardiola's four-time consecutive Premier League Champions are 15 points off leaders Liverpool after a 5 - 1 annihilation by Arsenal on Sunday.



Leyton Orient meanwhile have made an imperious (almost City like) start to 2025. The O's have lost only once in the league this calendar year, a 1 - 0 defeat to Stockport, who are one of just five sides above Orient in the League One table.


Not only are Richie Wellins' side the team in form coming into this tie, but they've already shown a flair for the dramatic in this season's FA Cup. Orient beat Derby County on penalties in the Third Round, after goalkeeper Josh Keeley had scored a stoppage time winner in the Second Round against Oldham Athletic (any chance to see this again).


Josh Keeley scores stoppage time winner against Oldham Athletic in FA Cup Second Round

Plymouth Argyle will be chasing a similar and even more unlikely upset when they welcome Liverpool to Home Park. Since Miron Muslic took over in Devon on the 10th January, Plymouth have taken five points from as many games.


Although Argyle are bottom of the Championship, they have brought themselves to within four points of safety with a run of just two defeats in their past eight games.


Of course this run included a famous FA Cup upset away to Premier League Brentford, where now-departed Morgan Whittaker netted a late winner for the Pilgrims.



Liverpool of course come into this tie as overwhelming favourites, but must take the game seriously if they are to avoid the potential banana skin that comes with facing an unfancied EFL opponent.


Arne Slot's side are still going strong in all four competitions, and while a quadruple is always unlikely, the Reds' chance of winning any of the four competitions individually looks good, but Plymouth may get an opportunity if Slot priorities the Premier League and Champions League.


Speaking of the Champions League, Nottingham Forest find themselves third in the Premier League, chasing European football for the first time since the 1995/1996 season. The wait for a trophy has gone on even longer for Nuno Espirito Santo's side; Forest's last major trophy was the 1990 League Cup.



In their way in this round are Exeter City, who aren't exactly in red hot form. Aside from their Third Round win over Championship strugglers Oxford United, the Grecians haven't won since Boxing Day and have lost four of their past five; not exactly the ingredients for an upset.


A club who will fancy an upset against a high-flying Premier League opponent are Birmingham City. Chris Davies has not only taken his side on strong runs in both the FA Cup and EFL Trophy, but has also steered them four points clear at the top of League One with two games in hand due to their cup exploits.



League One is not an easy league to find consistency in, as Michael James explained a couple of weeks ago. But Birmingham are making quick work of returning to the Championship and are flying, unbeaten in their past 17 games.


Newcastle are of course favourites for the tie, but given that they are already in the Carabao Cup final, Eddie Howe may well throw all of his eggs in one basket as far as winning a trophy is concerned.



While the FA Cup offers a Europa League place, far more lucrative than the Conference League place offered by the Carabao Cup, the trophy is the main goal for Newcastle, whatever European competition that may land them in. Birmingham might just catch Newcastle off guard at St. Andrew's.



EFL sides favourites against Premier League Strugglers?


In a bizarre pattern of results around the Third Round, all of the Premier League's bottom five failed to win either side of the FA Cup window, but were successful in the cup itself. For the bottom four at least, they'd certainly have preferred an early exit from the FA Cup and three points in the Premier League.


As it is though, the Premier League's strugglers all face difficult assignments this weekend. While Everton and Leicester face Premier League opponents, Southampton, Ipswich and Wolves all face promotion-chasing Championship sides who come into their respective ties in far better form than the Premier League clubs.


Southampton are the only Premier League side drawn to host a non-Premier League opponent, but visitors Burnley are certainly hoping to be back in the top flight by this time next season.



The Clarets have done just about everything that Southampton haven't; they score goals in big moments, don't concede silly goals (or really any goals for that matter) and rarely lose.


Scott Parker's side have lost just two league matches all season; Southampton lost four in January alone. Of course the level in the Premier League is completely different to the Championship, but Burnley's form is undeniable, going unbeaten in their last 19 games.



Southampton have improved recently, putting up a real fight in their defeats to Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle before tasting just their second Premier League success of the season this weekend.


That 2 - 1 win over Ipswich could prove monumental in the Tractor Boys' season, but for it to mean anything at all for Ivan Juric's side, they must kick on and start picking up points more regularly.



What's more worrying for the Saints is that James Trafford, Burnley's highly rated goalkeeper, hasn't conceded in his past nine games. The only goal the Clarets have conceded in 2025 was in the Third Round when Trafford was rested for the win at Reading.


Of course the FA Cup is a welcome distraction for many and the Saints are no exception, but a defeat could prove just as damaging as a win would be valuable.


The same can be said of the Ipswich side Southampton stunned at the weekend; a visit to playoff hopefuls Coventry City is probably the last thing Kieran McKenna wants to be thinking about at the moment.



Frank Lampard took over a Coventry side flirting with the relegation places in November, but in just over two months he's taken his side to within just three points of the playoff places (albeit having played a game more than some rivals).


Much like the Southampton tie, the Championship side come into the game in far better form and a far more confident mood. Add to that Coventry's fairytale run to last season's semi-finals and the Sky Blues are overwhelming favourites.



Wolves are showing a few more signs of life that their fellow strugglers; a 2 - 0 win over Champions League side Aston Villa last weekend has lifted the mood around Molineux ahead of this weekend's trip to Blackburn.


Ewood Park has been a tough place to go this season, but Blackburn's recent struggles in the Championship will likely take their focus away from the FA Cup; Rovers have lost four of their last five, including a diabolical performance in a 1 - 0 defeat to Oxford United.



A strong first half of the season means John Eustace can still guide his team into the top six, but a midweek defeat to QPR leaves Blackburn at the mercy of the results around the league this weekend as to whether or not they're still in the playoff places when they kick-off against Wolves on Sunday.


In some ways, this tie looks over before it's started, but if the FA Cup has taught us anything, that makes it a prime candidate for an upset.



Mid-table London clubs travel north


Mid-table Premier League sides are excellent candidates for a great cup run; Fulham and Crystal Palace are realistically unlikely to secure European football this season, but also have nothing to worry about in terms of relegation. So why not go for a cup title?


Crystal Palace will make the long trip to Yorkshire for a Fourth Round tie with League Two high-flyers Doncaster Rovers, who stunned Hull City on penalties in the Third Round.



Doncaster are right in the thick of a promotion battle, sitting second in League Two, and while this will given them momentum ahead of Palace's visit, it's unlikely that Grant McCann will want to risk his best players suffering injuries ahead of a promotion run-in.


Wigan meanwhile are in a similar position to Crystal Palace in that they don't have too much riding on their league matches. The Latics are nine points clear of the bottom four and ten points off the playoff spots, so a cup run likely wouldn't damage their league season.


Fulham are perhaps the most difficult team to predict heading into this round; Marco Silva's side are in with an outside chance of finishing in the European spots in the Premier League if results in both the league and other competitions go their way, but their best chance of returning to Europe for the first time in 15 years is realistically through winning the FA Cup.



This would be a monumental moment in Fulham's history given that they've never won the FA Cup and haven't made the final since 1975. But given the Cottagers capacity for delivering in the big games, especially at Craven Cottage, what's to say they can't go on a run and secure their first ever major trophy.



Plenty to play for in EFL match-ups


Even though the three remaining ties don't feature Premier League teams, they're still worth keeping an eye on at the very least.


Leeds United are top of the Championship with a five point lead over second-place Burnley and look set for a return to the Premier League after narrowly missing out in the playoff final last season.



Millwall though will provide tough opposition; the Lions are unbeaten in their last four games and have consistently proven themselves a stubborn opponent.


Beyond current form though, this is an incredibly even fixture; each side has won 19 of the 43 meetings, with the other five ending level. If Leeds do keep one eye on the league and rest some key players for this tie, Millwall have every chance of pulling off a fantastic away win.



Cardiff City will be at the bet365 Stadium for the other all-Championship clash of the round; the Bluebirds have turned their form around under Omer Riza, as Kian Harper predicted back in November.


A 3 - 0 derby thrashing of Swansea was certainly the highlight, but it's the energy of the performances and ability to stay in games when they concede that has lifted Cardiff out of the bottom three.



Hosts Stoke are just a point ahead of Cardiff, making this the closest tie in terms of league tables heading into the Fourth Round. The Potters have had a typically mid-table season, but with only a five point cushion to the bottom three aren't entirely comfortable with 16 league games still to play.


Expect this to be a tight, unforgiving affair between two sides who really have far more important things to focus on as they look to avoid the drop to League One.


Finally, League One promotion-chasers Wycombe Wanderers head to Deepdale to face Preston North End. The Chairboys sit second in League One, well behind leaders Birmingham but four points ahead of third-place Wrexham.



Preston's mid-table Championship position makes them an interesting test for Wycombe; Matt Bloomfield will welcome the opportunity to test his side, who he hopes to take to the second tier, against the sort of side they'll likely need to beat next season to survive.


For Preston, a team rich with domestic history, this tie is a chance to make something of their season. Playoff pushes in recent seasons haven't come close to being repeated this term, so a bit of excitement and a potential Fifth Round tie with a Premier League team would certainly bring some light to a fairly gloomy campaign.



The ties in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup start on Friday night and run (for some reason) up to Tuesday, with the draw taking place right in the middle of the round on Sunday afternoon.













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