After this week's quarter-finals, the Carabao Cup is down to its final four teams of the 2024/2025 season. The semi-final draw has handed defending champions Liverpool a test against a Tottenham side who they meet in the Premier League this weekend, while Newcastle will also be in North London to face Arsenal.
The Carabao Cup is certainly the smallest trophy available to the Premier League clubs, but for each of the four semi-finalists there is real value in winning this competition.
With the final of the tournament in March, this is a mid-season trophy, which can provide both a huge boost and a reassuring safety net to whichever club wins it.
Whether a club sees the competition as a boost or a safety net really comes down to what they're looking to get out of it; a trophy or a European spot.
The winners of this competition are technically entitled to England's Conference League spot, but since the launch of the third European competition in 2021, the winners of the Carabao Cup have all qualified for either of the other two European competitions.
If this were to happen again, the Conference League place, as it has in the past three seasons, will pass down to the highest-finishing Premier League club not to have already qualified for European competition.
Last season, that was Chelsea, who finished sixth in the Premier League, but in the two previous seasons it was the seventh-placed side who took the spot.
Of course the Carabao Cup is a trophy in itself as well, which for any club is a notable achievement.
So for Arsenal, Newcastle, Tottenham and Liverpool, what exactly would it mean to win the Carabao Cup?
Arsenal
Few would disagree that Mikel Arteta has done a fantastic job to turn Arsenal around. He arrived at a club in the bottom half of the Premier League table, but managed to win the FA Cup and secure European football just five months later.
While the going was rough for a couple of years after that, it was worth the wait for the Gunners, who built a formidable team who have challenged Manchester City for the Premier League title over the past two seasons.
Despite this upturn in standards though, the Gunners are without a major trophy since 2020. Make no mistake, this is nothing compared to the droughts of Newcastle and Tottenham but if Arsenal are to be considered among Europe's elite, they need to start adding trophies to their cabinet.
This competition provides an excellent opportunity to do just that. Unless semi-final opponents Newcastle have an up-turn in form, the Gunners could reach the Carabao Cup final without playing a side in the top half of the Premier League.
Early victories over Bolton Wanderers and Preston North End didn't force Arteta's side to break a sweat, but did provide an opportunity for young prodigy Ethan Nwaneri to shine.
That stage of the competition can give way to a proper trophy hunt for Arsenal now though, with Newcastle United arguably the easier draw as the only of the last four in the bottom half.
If the Gunners were to have another season like the last two where they throw everything into the title fight but come up short without winning a trophy, frustrations would mount among supporters.
But add a trophy to the mix and all of a sudden it's far more forgivable to fall short in the title race.
The European spot that comes with winning this competition is essentially useless for an Arsenal side who have a five point cushion in the European spots, but the trophy would be invaluable for Arteta's side, who haven't won this competition since 1993.
Newcastle
The League Cup has been a torturous, vicious and allusive competition for Newcastle in the past few years. In three of the past four seasons, the Magpies have reached the quarter-finals, but in all three years failed to win the trophy.
These shortcomings have made their 70-year wait for a major trophy that much more painful.
While titles in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup and the Championship have given fans something to cheer about slightly more recently than the 1955 FA Cup success, there's no escaping the fact that Newcastle United haven't won a trophy for a really long time (yes the picture is supposed to be black and white).
Drawing Arsenal wouldn't have been top of Eddie Howe's Christmas list given that his team haven't won at the Emirates since 2010.
Of course there is a return leg at St James' Park, but if last season's 4 - 1 mauling in North London is anything to go by, Newcastle will need to be a lot better this time around to keep the tie alive after the first leg.
With another European side awaiting in the final in Tottenham or Liverpool, Newcastle are certainly the underdogs in the competition.
But they do have a key advantage in terms of the timing of both the second legs of the semi-finals and the final itself; they have no European football to worry about.
Of course Newcastle would much rather be in Europe and have more matches, but ironically their absence from UEFA competitions this season may serve them well as they look to win this competition and secure at least a Conference League spot for next season.
Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham would've played League Phase matches in Europe in both midweeks before the second legs of the semi-finals, and the second legs of the last 16 ties take place the same week as the final.
This should give Newcastle a much fresher squad assuming all three sides make it through to the last 16 of their various European competitions.
Arsenal and Liverpool certainly look likely to do that through finishing in the top eight, and even though Spurs are at risk of missing out on an automatic spot, they'd surely be favourites in a Europa League play-off tie.
So while the odds are definitely stacked against Eddie Howe's Toon Army, there are plenty of causes for hope. Knockout football is unpredictable by nature and with only two wins required to win the tournament, Newcastle have every reason to believe.
Tottenham
It must be tough supporting Tottenham. Everything can go from absolutely incredible to misery and back again about five times in the space of 20 minutes. Stretch that out over the course of a season and it must be exhausting.
Thursday night's victory over Manchester United was the very best of what Ange Postecoglou's football is all about; chaos.
Spurs held a slender 1 - 0 lead at half-time, but after a strong start to the second half, they led 3 - 0. That was until two horrendous errors from Fraser Forster gifted United two goals and with them, a route back into the tie.
The errors flowed at the other end however, with United goalkeeper Altay Bayindir allowing Son to score from a corner to put Spurs 4 - 2 up.
Despite a Jonny Evans header slipping through Forster's hands to complete his hat-trick of awful mistakes, Spurs scraped through to the semi-finals for the first time since the 2021/2022 season.
A draw with league leaders Liverpool is appropriately timed ahead of Spurs' meeting with the Reds in North London on Sunday in the Premier League, but arguably it's the cup tie that will mean more for Postecoglou's side.
Spurs haven't won a competitive trophy of any sort since the 2008 League Cup, a drought of 17 years. It's been significantly longer since they won a bigger title, with their last league title coming in 1961.
As much as Postecoglou would love to focus on the attraction of the trophy though, he also has to be realistic. A combination of injuries and catastrophic defensive errors had Spurs in the bottom half of the Premier League before their 5 - 0 win away to Southampton last weekend.
Therefore, the Conference League spot available from winning this competition could be that safety net of European football Spurs need to take some of the pressure off of their league form.
Any other club fighting on four fronts for a trophy would be reasonably confident of at least making a final, but with Tottenham's almost entirely random lack of consistency, it's difficult to back them.
Add to that the machine-like ability of Arne Slot's Liverpool side to win games every three days and things don't look all that promising for Spurs. They have the quality to beat most sides in the Premier League, but over two legs, especially with the second leg at Anfield, they're far from favourites.
That being said, if they can get their supporters behind them and have key defenders Micky van de Ven and Christian Romero back for the second leg at Anfield in February, they might just have a chance of making the final, which of course could be against North London rivals Arsenal.
Liverpool
Of the four semi-finalists, there's no question that Liverpool need this the least. That being said, it would still be a wonderful start to what they hope will be a historic couple of months under Arne Slot at the end of the season.
While all four of the semi-finalists are yet to be knocked out of a competition this season, Liverpool are flying to an extent that has sparked debate over the possibility of a quadruple chase.
Arne Slot has guided his new side to the top of the Premier League and the Champions League, and have maintained their lead every time they've gone a goal ahead in the Carabao Cup this season.
Spurs do represent a potential problem for Arne Slot though. The pure chaos Ange Postecoglou's side bring to a football match may well disrupt the rhythm and control Liverpool have enjoyed in most of their games this season.
In games against Arsenal and Fulham in the Premier League where Liverpool haven't had as much control as they'd have liked, they've conceded goals to fast counter-attacks and dropped points.
The main problem with facing (and being) Spurs though is the total unpredictability. Liverpool will go to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday but even after that game they'll have little idea what sort of Tottenham side they're going to face three weeks later.
Ultimately though, Liverpool are one of the few sides in the Premier League who should be able to beat Spurs no matter how the North London side play. The Reds have the makings of a formidable side and the Carabao Cup could be the first of four trophies under Arne Slot this season.
That's not to say it isn't important though; remember at the time of Liverpool's triumph in this competition last year under Jurgen Klopp, the Reds were in line for all four trophies; the Carabao Cup was the only one they won.
Semi-Finals
The first legs of the semi-finals take place in the week beginning 6th January and the second legs in the week beginning 3rd February.
As mentioned, the second legs are the week after the second legs of the last 16 ties in both the Champions League and Europa League, which Arsenal and Liverpool are likely to be in and Spurs may well feature in too.
Arsenal will host Newcastle at the Emirates first before a return in the North East a month later, and the second semi-final also starts in North London before Tottenham go to Anfield in February.
Notably, Tottenham host Newcastle in the Premier League the Saturday before the first legs, and Arsenal's last league match before the second leg is at home to Manchester City.
Whatever the outcome of the semi-finals, it's sure to be a thrilling final at Wembley on 16th March, but of course the favourite final would have to be a North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham.
The smallest available trophy this may be, but it looks as though we're in for a thrilling conclusion to this season's Carabao Cup.
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