For all its critics at the start of the season, the new League Phase format of the Champions League is proving its worth. With just a single round of fixtures to go in the new look competition, only two sides have confirmed automatic progression to the last 16 and not a single one of the 36 clubs know which exact position they'll finish in.
Liverpool and Barcelona have secured top eight finishes with 21 and 18 points respectively, meaning they'll skip the knock-out playoff round.
While Arsenal aren't technically assured of the same, it would take a sensational combination of ridiculous scorelines across at least six games to deny the Gunners a top eight finish.
Inter Milan join Arsenal on 16 points, but because of their lower goal difference could end up just outside the top eight if they lose to Monaco and other results go against them.
In all likelihood though, both Inter and Arsenal, who played each other on Matchday 4, will join Barcelona and Liverpool in the last 16.
As far as the rest of the automatic places go it's really anyone's guess. Every team from Atletico Madrid in 5th down to Celtic in 18th is in with at least an outside chance of skipping February's playoff round.
At the other end, nine clubs find themselves eliminated from contention, and with no relegation to the Europa League as of this year, these clubs will have little to play for in the final round of fixtures.
For the sides from Bologna down, the last game carries little significance, although the games could end up being crucial for their various opponents. Bologna for example play away to Sporting, who must win to ensure a spot in the playoff round.
For Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk though, the opportunity to qualify for the playoff round is still very much alive heading into the final round of matches, with no one from 19th down assured of a place in the competition's knockout stages.
Before we dive into who's likely to come where though, let's have a quick refresh of the new format.
League Phase
Each of the 36 clubs in this season's Champions League have now played seven of their eight league phase matches in the new format.
The clubs are ranked in one big 36-club table.
Those that finish in the top eight places qualify automatically for the last 16, skipping the playoff round altogether. Furthermore, these clubs are seeded in the last 16 against the sides who come through February's playoff matches.
Clubs who finish between 9th and 16th are seeded for the playoff round, playing the second legs at home against sides who finish between 17th and 24th. The clubs ranked 25th to 36th are out of not just the Champions League, but European competition altogether.
The ranking goes a bit deeper than the round a club enters for the knockout stage; there is also partial seeding all the way through. This means that the 9th and 10th placed clubs will face the 23rd and 24th placed clubs in the playoff round. The winners of these ties then play the 7th and 8th placed clubs in the last 16.
This seeding continues until the final, meaning Liverpool and Barcelona, currently 1st and 2nd, can't meet until the final. The same is true for all other "paired" clubs, such as Arsenal and Inter in 3rd and 4th and so on.
From the last 16 onwards, there will be a fixed-bracket draw, meaning the competition will largely continue in the same way as previous seasons.
Top Eight Shaping Up
While the playoff round only looks marginally clearer after seven rounds than it did after one, the top eight has a more established look to it.
Liverpool and Barcelona, who have 13 wins from 14 games between them, are guaranteed to qualify and while Arsenal and Inter technically aren't, both clubs should be through even if they lose (although a point for either would make absolutely sure).
That being said, both the Gunners and I Nerazzurri will have to win to ensure they finish in the top four. This isn't the necessity that a top eight finish is, but it does, in theory, provide a more straightforward route through the competition's knockout phase.
Atletico Madrid, AC Milan and Atalanta (5th, 6th and 7th) will, at the very worst, maintain their current positions with victories, and will move higher up the table should Arsenal or Inter slip up.
For Atalanta especially though this may prove to be a difficult task with a trip to Barcelona on their schedule for Matchday Eight.
The really tasty part about this top eight battle comes from the six teams from 8th to 13th locked together on 13 points. To make it even more enticing, their goal differences are all between +2 and +6.
In all likelihood, the final top eight will come from the current top thirteen. The likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid are technically within reach but would need several results, including their own, to go their way in order to get in.
The playoff places however are (in the best possible way) a complete mess.
Playoffs Anyone's Call
There are sixteen playoff places up to grabs from 9th down to 24th. Currently, there are just three points between Bayer Leverkusen in 8th, one place above the playoff spots, and fellow German side Stuttgart in 24th.
It's difficult to criticise a format that's left three points between 17 clubs with one round of matches to go.
Permutations are worth looking at for the top eight and even for the sides just outside the playoff places and what they would need to get in. But for those in the playoff spots it's near impossible to comprehend the vast array of potential outcomes.
The simplest version of the story is that any club between 8th and 24th will definitely be in the playoff spots if they win. Technically, any of them from Celtic (in 18th) up could end up in the top eight if results go their way.
As we said before, it's incredibly unlikely that any club not currently in the top thirteen would make it into the top eight, but that isn't the only marker to aim for.
Finishing between 9th and 16th puts clubs in the seeded pot of the playoff draw; this means the second leg at home. This is often crucial as it means any extra time or penalties are played at home.
But the playoff places are so tight at the moment that a club could quite easily win and drop a couple of places. If Borussia Dortmund win by a single goal for example, it's perceivable they could still be overtaken by Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Juventus.
Who Could Miss Out
While the teams currently in the playoff places just have to win and see where it gets them, survival in the competition is far more perilous for the three sides sat just outside the top 24.
Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk are all still in with a chance of qualifying for the playoff round, but must win on the final day to be able to qualify.
City have a key advantage that the other two do not; they play a team who are right above them. If they beat Belgian side Club Brugge, the 2023 winners will overtake them and move into a playoff place.
In contrast, Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk not only face far tougher games than City, but know that even victory won't guarantee progression to the playoff round.
Dinamo Zagreb, after their goal difference took another hit in defeat to Arsenal, must beat AC Milan to get to 11 points. Even if they do though, wins for Benfica and Sporting as well as a draw between PSG and Stuttgart would mean the Croatians cannot reach the knockout stages.
The situation is even more bleak for Shakhtar. A trip to Borussia Dortmund is difficult enough, but the reality is victory alone is not enough for the Ukrainian side, who will need their rivals to suffer defeats.
On top of that, Shakhtar, who have just seven points from as many games in the League Phase, have a goal difference of -6, meaning they'd need a hefty victory away to a Dortmund side who will be heavy favourites for their Matchday Eight meeting.
This new format makes for a thrilling conclusion to the new League Phase. As well as the likes of Manchester City and Real Madrid competing to secure top 24 or top eight finishes, the clubs already in those places are still battling it out for the highest possible ranking.
The knockout stage will throw up some incredible ties, with Liverpool and Barcelona currently on track to face one of Juventus, Celtic, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich.
Of course Matchday Eight (a new occurrence in itself) will throw up more twists before the playoff round draw on the 31st January, but that just adds to the thrill of this new-look Champions League.
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