Manchester City have more than faltered in the Premier League this season, with the absence of their midfield linchpin perhaps at the heart of the side’s struggles.
When it was confirmed by an official club statement on 25th September that Rodri had suffered a ligament injury to his right knee, football fans across the globe started to speculate of a City struggle, a City side that would need to adapt.
However, with the innovative Manchester City manager, Pep Guardiola at the helm of a serial title winning side, it was widely agreed that Guardiola’s men would find a way to produce results without their highly influential figure in midfield.
While fans may have felt confident in Guardiola’s ability to steer the City ship without their rudder, the statistics predicted a different and now familiar fall in Manchester City’s form.
City without Rodri: The Stats
Prior to Rodri’s anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, the Spaniard had only been absent for 21 of the 195 matches Manchester City had played since his arrival.
Of those 21 matches, Guardiola’s side won just 13, losing seven and drawing one. However, Rodri’s return soon after steered the side toward their fourth consecutive Premier League title in May.
According to Opta, City’s win rate during Rodri’s 21 match absence was 61.9%. This is a significant decrease from the 74.1% win rate across the 174 fixtures of which Rodri played in. Of these, his side won 129 matches, drew 26, and lost just 19.
After applying the Opta win rate of 61.9% to Manchester City’s current stance in the Premier League of 41 points from 23 matches, it is estimated that Manchester City will conclude the current campaign with 69 points.
Manchester City would need to win approximately nine of their remaining 15 matches for this to come to fruition. However, it would be wise to note that with Manchester City’s recent form of six victories in 15 Premier League matches, this would not be a guarantee, especially with a very difficult run of fixtures to come in February.
With this comes the uncertainty of Manchester City finishing in the top four and securing Champions League football, as 68 and 71 points narrowly secured fourth place for Aston Villa and Newcastle in the past two campaigns.
Attack and Defend
Unlike most other midfielders, Rodri displays a world-class level of ball recovery. The Spaniard anticipates opposition movements to sweep up possession, allowing Guardiola’s side to dominate and control their contests.
Last season Rodri won possession for Manchester City 235 times in the Premier League, ranking second. Due to this, Manchester City topped the Premier League charts for possession with 65.2%, despite Guardiola’s side pressing so little.
This season Manchester City have pressed little again, however as their midfield anchor has not been present less regaining of possession has taken place and teams have enjoyed more of the ball.
From this comes attacks, with Guardiola’s side having conceded 36 goals in the last 20 matches across all competitions. Additionally, Manchester City recorded their sixth lowest share of possession in a Premier League match against Leicester City on 29th December 2024 (46.4%).
Data taken from the Premier League also demonstrates Rodri’s importance in the midfield from an attacking perspective.
The Spaniard had the most touches (3988), carries (2513), passes into the final third (378), and progressive passes (376) in the Premier League last season. Rodri’s world-class attacking distribution as indicated above shows he can pull the strings for his side even from deep.
With the likes of Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden, and striker Erling Haaland experiencing a dip in form, the absence of Rodri’s service may be partly accountable.
Replacing Rodri
Guardiola has attempted many different midfield combinations to adapt to Rodri’s absence.
Mateo Kovačić stepped in for Rodri against Chelsea on the opening weekend of the Premier League season and controlled the game. The Croatian took more touches (64) and made more tackles (six) than anyone else on the pitch.
However, the 30-year-old has indeed struggled when trying to replicate Rodri’s positional awareness, meaning he has failed to prevent counterattacks.
Against Brentford (14th September), Brighton (9th November) and Aston Villa (21st December), Kovačić failed to intercept swift attacks through the midfield, leading to his side conceding.
İlkay Gündoğan and Rico Lewis have also played in the Rodri role, however both have their limitations when it comes to trying to replicate the skills of the Spaniard.
While Gündoğan can carry the ball forward for his side, the German isn’t as efficient as Rodri in anticipating opponent’s movements, struggling to keep to the pace of the play perhaps due to his age.
Conversely, Lewis struggles with his stature, tending to be played off the ball and not possessing the ability to reclaim possession as Rodri does.
With the January transfer window currently open, it will surely be the priority of Manchester City’s outgoing director of football, Txiki Begiristain to sign an interim replacement, and future backup, for Rodri.
Whether Manchester City do secure a midfield signing is yet to be decided. However, what is certain is that whoever is called upon next to replace Rodri will have some big shoes to fill as the Champions chase a consolation prize of Champions League football.
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