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Seven? Nine? Even Eleven? How Many Premier League Clubs Will Make Europe?

Writer: Connor BoothConnor Booth

The recent successes of Premier League clubs in European football have put England right at the top of UEFA's coefficient rankings, granting English clubs seven spots to fight for in Europe. On top of that, the Premier League is on track to receive a performance spot given that five of the seven English clubs in Europe this season have made the quarter-finals.


It's because of this success in European competition this season that more than the usual maximum of eight places could be available, especially if the winners of these competitions aren't already in Europe.


Throw in Newcastle's Carabao Cup success and the potential for an FA Cup winner finishing outside the top eight, there could be as many as eleven Premier League clubs in Europe


To ask a simple question then, how?



Premier League


In a season as strange as this one, even the usual European spots in the Premier League table have shifted.


The excellent performances of five of the seven English clubs in Europe will earn the Premier League a European performance spot, which is an extra place in the Champions League.



This means that the top five will earn the right to compete with Europe's elite next season.


On top of this, the Premier League is still entitled to its Europa League spot, which will move down one place to sixth.



All of this, so far, is pretty much set in stone; the rest is very much up in the air.



Carabao Cup


Newcastle's victory over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup Final was a masterclass from Eddie Howe.



The Magpies out-muscled and out-played Arne Slot's side, capitalising on their physical and aerial dominance to win their first domestic trophy for 70 years.


As much as it was a wonderful sight to see the Toon celebrating a trophy, it does make European qualification far more complicated.


Winning the Carabao Cup gives Newcastle a spot in the final qualifying round of the Conference League, if they need it.


Because Eddie Howe has got his team playing brilliantly in the Premier League as well as the League Cup, Newcastle may well finish in a Europa League or even Champions League place themselves.



This would allocate the Conference League spot to the highest-finishing team in the Premier League who hadn't already qualified for Europe.


But to work out who this would be, we have to look at the other cup competition.



FA Cup


Realistically, the history of the FA Cup speaks louder to teams than the Europa League spot up for grabs for winning it.


However, for seven of the eight teams left in the competition this season, that Europa League spot might be their only route into Europe's secondary competition.


Nottingham Forest are the exception; Nuno Espirito Santo has guided his team to third in the Premier League with just nine games to go.



While supplementing this fantastic league season with an FA Cup run only adds to the achievement, Forest have rotated heavily for their cup ties this season.


Having squeezed past Ipswich on penalties, their second shoot-out win in their three ties, a quarter-final with Brighton would be a step too far unless Nuno goes full-strength.


Manchester City, Aston Villa, Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth are right in the thick of the fight for European finishes in the Premier League.



Because of the nature of this season's European competitions though, these clubs could finish the league season without knowing if they'll be in Europe next season as a result of the European finals.


Win the FA Cup though, and a Europa League place is the bare minimum for next season.



For Crystal Palace and Preston, European football wasn't really on the agenda for next season, especially for Preston as a Championship club.


But with three wins to go, why not go for it?


Both sides are comfortably mid-table, with no relegation fears or top six hopes in their respective divisions, so there really is no excuse not to try to mix up those European places.


If one of these sides were to win the FA Cup and finish outside the top seven in the Premier League and if Newcastle were to finish in the top six, that would take England to eight European spots.



This is a real possibility for Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth and Aston Villa as well, so it's really not unrealistic for England to hope for eight or more European spots.



European finals


If you told any fan of the Premier League at the start of this season that Manchester City would finish outside the top two, Newcastle would win the Carabao Cup and Bournemouth could be in the FA Cup Final, they'd be excited already.


Add to that the potential of English clubs in all three European finals and it becomes even more exhilarating.


Chelsea have a straightforward run to the Conference League Final. Europe's third competition has been a breeze for the Blues this season, and if they beat Legia Warsaw in the quarter-final, they'll extend England's record of having a club in four of the five Conference League semi-finals since the competition began.



Winning this title would give Chelsea a Europa League spot, so if they finish outside the top six, there's a chance they add another club to the list of European qualifiers.


Aston Villa have a similar situation in the Champions League. If the Villains were to pull off one of the greatest shocks in European football history and win their second European title, but finish outside the top five, that would take England up to six Champions League spots for next season.



The Europa League is even simpler; Manchester United and Tottenham will both finish outside the top six, so if either club wins the Europa League, they'll be in the Champions League next season without taking a spot off another club.


So, in theory, the Premier League could have seven clubs in the Champions League, three in the Europa League and one in the Conference League.



The Full Rundown


In a compact way, the Premier League could have eleven clubs in European competition if:


  • Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Newcastle are the top five, taking Champions League spots from the Premier League.

  • Brighton, Bournemouth or Fulham finish sixth, taking the spot in the Europa League.

  • One of the above clubs win the FA Cup, but finish outside the top seven, taking the FA Cup spot in the Europa League.

  • Aston Villa win the Champions League but finish outside the top eight, qualifying for the Champions League as defending Champions League.

  • Chelsea win the Conference League but finish outside the top seven to qualify for the Europa League.

  • Manchester United or Tottenham win the Europa League to qualify for the Champions League.

  • A club that wins no trophies finishes ninth, taking Newcastle United's Conference League spot (Newcastle would be in the Champions League in this scenario) for winning the Carabao Cup.


This also works if Newcastle finish ninth and use their own Conference League spot and another club that doesn't win a trophy finishes fifth.


It might seem far-fetched to suggest that all of the above could occur, but break it down one-by-one, it's only Villa winning the Champions League that's at all unlikely.


If the right Premier League clubs finish in the right places and win all three European competitions, half the teams in the league could be in Europe next season.

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