Over the past few seasons, many ‘big’ clubs have seen themselves drop down to League One, and the majority of them have struggled to achieve promotion.
To name a recent few, League One has been graced by the likes of Sunderland, Portsmouth, Bolton, Wigan, Ipswich, Birmingham, Derby, Sheffield Wednesday and Coventry.
Even this season, some big clubs are still in the league, such as Reading, Charlton, Huddersfield, Blackpool and Rotherham: four of these five are former Premier League clubs.
The expectation from fans, both of the clubs itself and from others in the league, is that these clubs are almost expected to achieve promotion back to The Championship at the first time of asking, however, that is not the case, on multiple occasions.
Ipswich and Portsmouth have suffered extended periods in League One, with Ipswich spending four years in the division before achieving a second-place finish, whilst Portsmouth had to endure seven seasons of third-tier football before finally winning the league.
On the flip side, some clubs tend to find their way back into The Championship much sooner. This season, Birmingham look set to win the league or get promoted at the very least, at the first time of asking, whilst Rotherham are a club that tends to get promoted and then relegated back to League One every few seasons.
So, how difficult is it to get out of League One, and what are some of the key factors in achieving this promotion?
Consistency
It goes without saying that any team that wants to get promoted will have to be consistent throughout the season, both home and away.
Over the last five or six seasons, the points tally required to achieve a spot in the top six have been relatively similar. In the 18-19 season, Doncaster finished in 6th place with 73 points.
In the 20-21 season, Oxford United achieved 6th place with 74 points, whilst Lincoln and Sunderland both secured playoff spots with 77 points each. Peterborough recorded 77 points when they finished 6th in the 22-23 season, whilst last year, Barnsley finished 6th with 76 points, and Oxford United a place and a single point above them.
Based on the trend, it seems that a minimum of 73 points is enough to get you into the top six come the end of the season, but that is not always the case.
The 22-23 season will go down as one of the best League One seasons in recent history, with two teams, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday, nearly breaking the 100-point barrier, whilst Plymouth won the league with 101 points.
Even the playoffs were difficult to break into that year. Despite Peterborough squeezing in with 77 points, Bolton were in fifth with 81 points, Barnsley fourth with 86 points, and Sheffield Wednesday finishing in third with a massive 96 points.
Again, in the 21-22 season, Wycombe finished in 6th place with 83 points, smashing the average over the past few seasons, winning 23 games out of 46 that season.
Despite this, Wycombe did not even achieve promotion, losing out in the playoffs. Whilst the playoffs give the participants a fair playing ground, a side's form going into them certainly affects how they play.
Out of the past five seasons, not including the season postponed for COVID, the team finished in third place has won the playoffs, Sheffield Wednesday in 22-23, Blackpool in 20-21 and Charlton in 18-19.
Looking at the teams at the top of the table, who have achieved automatic promotion, the points tallies are extremely high. Four out of the past five seasons, excluding the COVID season, have seen the top two both finish on over 90 points, reaching its peak during the 22-23 season, with Plymouth and Ipswich finishing on 101 and 98 points respectively.
So, for any club to get promoted, or even have a chance of finishing in the playoffs, they need to be consistent throughout the entire season. Any poor runs of form or a goal drought from an important striker could cost dearly come the end of the season.
A Natural Goalscorer
Goals win games, that goes without saying, but a consistent goalscorer is so vital for a team vying for promotion. Goals need to come from all over the pitch for a promotion-winning side, but having a front man who can score at least 20 a season is a massive help.
In the 18-19 season, James Collins scored an impressive 25 goals for Luton Town, securing them the top spot in the league, and promotion back to The Championship after a 12-year exodus.
It has been a common trend as well throughout League One. Johnson Clarke-Harris scored 31 goals in the 20-21 season for Peterborough, as they claimed a second-placed finish.
Will Keane also grabbed the golden boot during the 21-22 season, netting 26 goals as Wigan won the league by two points over Rotherham.
But, there are instances where goals are not everything. The past two seasons have seen the golden boot winner not taste promotion, with Johnson Clarke-Harris grabbing 27 goals and losing out in the playoffs with Peterborough.
More surprisingly, last season, Alfie May finished as League One’s top goalscorer with 23 goals, in a Charlton side that not only missed out on the playoffs but recorded a bottom-half finish, languishing in 16th.
With so much importance put onto strikers to score goals, it is no surprise to see the likes of Birmingham spending so much money on Jay Stansfield this season, and clubs like Huddersfield are rumoured to be spending £3 million on Dion Charles from Bolton. These clubs clearly see the importance of being able to score goals to win games.
But, whilst a goalscorer is vital to a side with ambitions of getting promoted, it does not seem to be everything a side needs.
A Dependable Goalkeeper
At the other end of the pitch, and with the style of football being played by most teams these days, a good shot-stopper, who is also capable of playing out from the back, is needed.
Every defensive-minded player loves a clean sheet, especially a goalkeeper. Any manager will talk about the importance of keeping it tight at the back, and the fans do not want to see their side conceding goals.
This is why, especially in the modern day, it is so important to have a dependable goalkeeper. A good shot-stopper, and one who can play with their feet, is paramount for any side looking for promotion.
If the rest of the team is on form, a clean sheet almost guarantees three points, and that has certainly been the case over the past five seasons.
In the 2018-19 season, Luton found themselves winning the League One title over Barnsley, as they finished three points above them. However, both sides were tied on clean sheets, as James Shae, for Luton, and Adam Davies, for Barnsley, had to share the golden glove award, with 19 clean sheets each.
Skipping the COVID season, Chris Maxwell registered 21 clean sheets and not only won the golden glove but helped Blackpool finish in third place, eventually beating Lincoln in the playoff final.
The 21-22 season saw another two keepers split the golden glove, this time David Stockdale for Wycombe, who finished sixth, and, surprisingly, Michael Cooper for Plymouth, who finished in seventh place, just three points outside the top six.
This trend continued for the next two seasons, with Christian Walton securing 23 clean sheets and helping Ipswich finish second in the league, whilst Joe Wildsmith did the same with Derby the season after, with 20 clean sheets.
With five of the last seven golden glove winners tasting promotion, it goes to show just how important a stable and dependable goalkeeper is in terms of promotion, but it does not solely hinge on this one factor.
Control
Any side that has realistic expectations of getting promoted needs to learn how to control the game, both when they are in the ascendancy, and when they are struggling.
This does not solely rely on the midfield either. This includes effective linkup play between the wingers and the fullbacks, or a controlled display from the centre-back partnership.
Teams need to learn how to control a game for 90 minutes. They need to limit the opposition to as little as possible, whilst also being attacking enough to score goals.
Blackpool secured promotion in the 20-21 season via the playoffs, with a helping hand from Kevin Stewart and Kenny Dougall. The midfield partnership put an incredible run of games together where, when they featured together, Blackpool were unbeaten.
This season, Birmingham sit top of the league with two games in hand, and they boast the best defensive record in the division, whilst Wrexham are also looking to get promoted, and often have control of games due to their experienced midfield.
The standard of football in League One is not always the best, especially looking at the teams lower down in the league table, and so having a squad that is capable of grabbing a game by the scruff of the neck is essential. Teams that cannot do this struggle against the ‘hoof ball’ sides like Shrewsbury and Burton.
There are a lot of factors that contribute to a team gaining promotion from League One, but over the past few seasons, there have been clear trends that have helped teams get promoted.
A 20-goal-a-season striker and a dependable goalkeeper capable of keeping clean sheets appear paramount, whilst a confident side capable of controlling a game and being consistent on a week-to-week basis is also extremely important.
It is becoming more and more difficult to earn promotion from League One, with the amount of money some of the clubs in the division are now able to spend, and that will be another contributing factor in the years to come.
Comments